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Mounting concerns are present about the chance of military engagement involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has ratcheted up in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Said?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed first openly declared in 2023 that his nation's maritime access was an vital issue, comments that Eritrea dismissed.

Relations between the neighboring nations have frequently been strained. After a decades-long struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict started in which more than 100,000 people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the frontier - and implied the desire to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "blunder" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrea's Response to the Threats

Despite persistent warnings from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been limited to short statements on X from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for sea access calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back lost territory.

The information ministry warned on 16 September that attempts to justify "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has shown graduation ceremonies of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of personnel division of the armed forces, General Hachalu, stated recently in an discussion that the military was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our adversaries".

Past Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from 1890, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then controlled by the UK forces before evolving into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this system and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long internal conflict followed, concluding with military reversal in 1991. Independence was then endorsed by the population in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to conflict in 1998.

Although this ended in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries continued at loggerheads.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the conflict was concluded – a move that won Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down once more.