Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
